OSIRIS Brief 0.26.0
The Biden admin might herald a change, but existing online and political conflicts remain.
China has High Hopes for a Biden Administration
China’s government seems to be hopeful about Sino-American relations under a Biden administration. Beijing is hoping to reduce tensions between the two countries by focusing on climate change and COVID-19, where it feels a Biden administration is likely to cooperate. Some observers agree with China’s optimism about its stronger position vis-á-vis the US, due to the Trump administration’s blunt foreign policy.
While the Biden administration is already striking a different tone than the Trump administration, China’s hopes are not likely to bear out. The Biden foreign policy team sounds a lot like the Trump foreign policy team on China and is conspicuously not rescinding Trump’s tariffs. Last week, the US reiterated its support for Taiwan after Chinese warplanes infringed on Taiwan’s airspace. Incoming Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken has accused China of genocide against the Uighurs.
The persistence of difficulties between the US and China may baffle some foreign policy watchers but is unsurprising to international relations scholars. If the Sino-American relationship was primarily driven by personalities or foreign ministry capability, then the stark contrast between Biden and Trump should produce a change in the relationship. On the other hand, if the dominant concern between the US and China is the balance of power, then we should expect no material change, no matter who occupies the White House. We will be able to see whether China believes the relationship has changed in cyberspace first, as that is where China can most easily change policy.
Australia in Dustup With Google
Australia and France have both been pressing Google to pay for content from news agencies that appear in its search engine. Google reached an agreement in France, but Google is threatening to leave the Australian market over a proposed media law. The proposed law would force companies like Google and Facebook into arbitration if they cannot agree with media companies over the value of the media companies’ properties.
The dust-up has drawn less attention internationally than it deserves. The US government has encouraged the Australian government to drop the law, and Vint Cerf—a founder of the internet who now works for Google—condemns the law as a threat to the free and open internet. Although there is not enough scholarship to support my position, I suspect that “information protectionism” is likely to work similarly to economic protectionism: it only hurts the people it is supposed to help. The most likely result, if the law passes, is that Google and other media will stop sending traffic to Australian outlets and that traffic simply gets grabbed up by non-Australian outlets.
SolarWinds Keeps on Giving
The SolarWinds hack continues as the leading cybersecurity story with a continuous drip of information. Cybersecurity company MalwareBytes admitted they were one of the targets of the SolarWinds attacks. Microsoft released a report detailing SolarWinds’ sophisticated approach providing additional evidence a nation-state advanced persistent threat (APT) was behind the attack. The Russian government warned some Russian organizations to beware of American retaliatory hacking.
Each bit of information that emerges confirms the SolarWinds attacks’ importance in cybersecurity and international relations. Although Russo-American relations in the real-world appear placid, online competition is approaching a fever pitch. Deploying a sophisticated weapon like Sunburst against the US government and security companies was risky, but has upset the American cybersecurity apple cart. While American retaliation may ultimately harm Russia, Russia’s government may have already achieved political aims worth any cost the US can inflict online.
David Benson is a Professor of Strategy and National Security focusing on cyberstrategy and international relations. You can reach him at dbenson@osiriscodex.com.
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