OSIRIS Brief 1.20.0
Russia is attacking Ukraine online; Microsoft buys Activision; Nigeria unbans Twitter.
Russia Attacks Ukraine Online
Until the past fortnight, there has been little indication that Russia was using cyberattacks to increase pressure on Ukraine. Two weeks ago Microsoft warned of increased attacks on Ukraine and since that time the dam has burst. Current reports indicate 10% of computers in Ukraine have been attacked. Ukraine claims there is strong evidence for Russian involvement, and considering the international situation strongly implicates Russia, too.
I had taken the absence of increased attacks as somewhat reassuring that Russia did not intend to attack Ukraine. While cyberattacks are not a necessary precondition of an invasion, Russia has led with cyberattacks in all its recent invasions. During the last Russian invasion of Ukraine, hackers released the Petya ransomware, among other attacks. Russia pioneered cyberattacks as part of an invasion when it invaded Georgia in 2008.
However, not all Russian cyberattacks indicate imminent invasion, and could just be another tool to coerce Ukraine and the West. Russian hackers were part of an (ultimately failed) attempt to coerce Estonia to leave a Soviet-era statue in place. Russian cyberattacks during elections around the world were not a prelude to war. Without an increase in Russian cyberattacks, invasion seemed unlikely, but increased attacks may or may not indicate a planned invasion.
Microsoft to Buy Activision
Last week, Microsoft shocked the tech industry by announcing it intends to buy Activision Blizzard for $69 billion. The proposed purchase price is near the $71 billion Disney paid for 20th Century Fox, three years ago. Activision Blizzard owns several of the most popular games in the world, including Call of Duty and World of Warcraft. The acquisition seems to indicate that Microsoft is investing heavily in video games as an industry.
Video gaming is the stealth economic monster many people have not yet recognized. Activision Blizzard is a big video game company, but not the biggest, and yet it may sell at 20x what Fiat paid for Chrysler in 2014. While this could be a huge blunder by Microsoft, the video game industry is enormous and growing. We are likely to see an increased public focus on the video game market as its value rises.
Twitter Wins Over Nigeria
Without much fanfare in the US, Nigeria lifted its months-long ban on Twitter. In June, Twitter blocked the president of Nigeria’s Twitter account claiming the president had incited violence. The Nigerian government retaliated by banning Twitter, and that ban has held for seven months. Although Twitter did not unblock the president, it did agree to establish a “legal entity” in Nigeria in the coming months.
The Nigerian Twitter ban seems like a victory for Twitter over a national government. Governments and societies are currently grappling with how to handle increasingly powerful social media companies. Nigeria’s ban was a uniquely harsh response but largely driven by popular concerns common around the world. Twitter may take heart in seemingly successfully weathering the Nigerian ban, but the victory may be short lived.
Noteworthy
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Six Steps To Execute Responsible AI In The Enterprise by Ates
How the AI-Enabled Worker Will Deliver Better Government in 2022 by Baksh
Is the U.S. Military’s Futurism Obsession Hurting National Security? by Nelson and Montgomery
How Hackers Run Token Scams to “Rug Pull” Money by Check Point
Log4Shell: No Mass Abuse, But No Respite, What Happened? by Wisniewski
Fact check: How Do I Spot a Deep Fake? by Barnett
Cyberbullying: Words do Hurt When it Comes to Social Media by Birdsong
David Benson is a Professor of Strategy and National Security focusing on cyberstrategy and international relations. You can reach him at dbenson@osiriscodex.com.
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